Slowdown in the real estate market to come in 2018?
The domestic residential and commercial real estate market has been flourishing for several years. Never before have residential developers been selling so many apartments and commercial developers – building so many offices, shopping centres and warehouses. The soundness of the industry is sustained by general economic situation. But there are more and more dark clouds on the horizon.
The Monetary Policy Council intends to raise interest rates in the near future, which have stayed at all-time lows in recent years. Such a raise – apart from shutting down the government’s “Apartment for the Young” subsidy programme – could significantly reduce demand for mortgage loans. Price increases for contracting and construction materials are also expected in 2018. Developer land banks are running low – the plots held there have already been developed and prices of new ones are sometimes astronomical. We can therefore expect further increases in apartment prices. Along with a lower demand for loans, this can mean the start of a slowdown in the market.
A downturn can also be expected in the office market, especially in its biggest slice which is Warsaw. There is a substantial oversupply of available spaces there – as much as a million square metres of vacant offices according to some estimates. In recent years, demand for office spaces in Warsaw has remained stable mainly thanks to the activity of foreign tenants locating their branches in the capital city partly as a result of Brexit. Without them, it can take years to absorb such a high supply by local tenants. The market will also have to deal with the effects of a new property tax whose introduction can dampen interest in Polish office buildings among foreign investment funds. The tax will also apply to commercial properties which will have to grapple with the effects of a Sunday trading ban.
Solutions to these – and many other – market problems will be sought by participants in the eighth edition of the „Polish Real Estate Forum” conference to be organized by Nowy Adres S.A. on 7-8 June at Sopot’s Sheraton Hotel. Events in this series are the biggest and most prestigious meetings for participants in the Polish residential and commercial real estate market. Nearly 600 major market players attend them every year – developers, banks, consultancies, construction companies, architectural studios and many more. This year’s “PREF” will kick off with a lecture by renowned business coach Jacek Santorski. The “Polish Real Estate Forum” is more than just knowledge – our special Match Maker programme allows you to arrange meetings at the conference with any of its participants. The solution makes it much easier to establish valuable business contacts and make fuller use of both days of the event.
For more information and the full conference programme, go to: