Expert comment by Mariusz Filec, Airfreight Product Director CEE, Rohlig SUUS Logistics
The global air cargo market is in a dynamic growth phase, although it can be seen that the scale depends on the geographical area and the industries that use it. The International Air Transport Association, IATA, reports that profits in the sector last month were up by around 12 percent compared to the same period last year, and by as much as 46 percent when looking at the figures before the COVID-19 pandemic. We also see this in our company statistics. Comparing 2023 to January-October 2024, the volume of shipments in this business increased by more than 25 percent.
The demand for air freight is not waning despite its relatively high price. Customers and industries for whom speed, flexibility and reliability are particularly important often choose this option. And what flies by plane today? It is not only fresh fruit and vegetables, flowers and electronics, but also clothing, components for machines and aircraft and products for sale in the e-commerce channel.
E-commerce likes to fly
E-commerce is becoming a key player in the air cargo market. This is, among other things, a result of the enduring popularity of Chinese sales platforms in Europe and the US. This year, the app of one of the most popular sites was downloaded by 100 million users worldwide. Only the air cargo business can handle these goods with an attractive delivery time for the consumer. According to research firm Trade and Transport Group, exports of e-commerce and low-value goods from China grew by 30 percent year-on-year in the first seven months of 2024, while deliveries to Europe and the US increased by 38 percent and 30 percent respectively.
Currently, the market is dominated by low-cost airlines from the Central Asian region and China, but it is clear that other players also have the desire to serve this segment of the market. EU airlines, among others, are exploring the topic and it is apparent that they are redirecting part of their freighter fleet in search of e-commerce-related profits. A similar situation is taking place with Persian Gulf carriers such as Qatar Airways and Emirates, which are expanding service towards Hong Kong, at the expense of, for example, well-priced connections to Australia. The violent effects of the relocation of the CAO fleet (CargoAircraftOnly, i.e. those dedicated to carrying cargo) can already be seen in South America, most notably at Brazil’s largest airport, São Paulo-Guarulhos, where, following the aforementioned changes, masses of cargo are lying not only in warehouses but also on the tarmac.
Freight pricing in the airline business and changes to route networks
The ongoing freight peak in the airline business has traditionally triggered a rise in airfreight rates for imports from China and the Far East to Europe or the USA. There is merchandise on board for Black Friday, Christmas and also American Thanksgiving promotions. Companies are very careful not to be late with products for sale, and air transport is a flexible solution for them. In the import direction from Southeast Asia, on the other hand, we are seeing stable but still high prices, which is unlikely to change any time soon. This is a result of the Red Sea crisis. Faced with extended sea transport times, airfreight is becoming the only alternative for deliveries from this region to Europe.
It is worth emphasising that currently, airlines are not changing the number of connections. On the contrary, they are adding new rotations and redirecting some services to more attractive destinations, including more and more new regional airports. This also translates into an increased offer for cargo transport. The biggest changes to the airline network at this time of year are seen in the United States. Some services have been redirected to the LATAM (Latin America) region. According to analyses, passenger connections in the US-Europe direction were reduced by 25 percent, while connections to Latin America were increased by 25 percent. It is worth noting that this is a new phenomenon not seen in previous years. Why this change? It is the result of the growing interest in holiday tourism in precisely this part of the world. This is a very significant transformation in the cargo market this year, which has made spaces on freighters extremely valuable and difficult to access. Carriers, however, have dynamically adapted to the new reality.
Polish airports laden with parcels
The cargo market in Poland is also experiencing a good year. Terminals are occupied to the limit, resulting in longer handling times for air shipments. This affects the efficiency of processes, especially at the main terminals in Central Poland (Warsaw or Łódź). In contrast, Katowice Airport and the airports in Wrocław and Kraków maintain stable efficiency. Therefore, selecting services with care is extremely important. It can sometimes be quicker to ship cargo at a regional port and deliver it to Warsaw than directly through the main terminal.
We are seeing with great interest the launch of flights from Katowice directly to Madrid and Barcelona, which are hubs to South America. This is an advantageous solution for customers who want to reach Mexico, Brazil, Colombia or Chile with their products. Latin America has a population of around 650 million people, which creates great opportunities for Polish companies. The exported product categories are dominated by machinery and equipment, food products, as well as new technologies such as electric batteries, spare parts and accessories for cars and mobile phones. Poland’s main partner in the region is Mexico, with which trade is growing regularly. At SUUS, we are seeing increasing customer interest in the LATAM region, which is why we also have a dedicated specialist to manage supply chains in this direction.
