As we enter the last quarter of 2024, iBanFirst, a global provider of foreign exchange and international payments, operating in 10 European countries, presents its Currency Outlook for Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the EUR/USD. These predictions give regional businesses engaged in international trade valuable insights into the latest currency market trends, helping them effectively anticipate and manage potential fluctuations and risks.
EUR/USD forecast for Q4 2024
If the U.S. election results are uncontested – a major question – analysts forecast the EUR/USD to fluctuate between 1.07 and 1.12 until the end of the year. Two key structural factors will influence the EUR/USD rate this year and beyond:
- The US economy is expected to outpace Europe in the coming years, with the Federal Reserve aggressively cutting rates and US productivity near 3 percent.
- The strong equity performance in the US, particularly in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes, will attract capital inflows, further boosting the dollar.
iBanFirst estimates that the dollar index is currently overvalued by 9.3 percent, although this is still below the 1980s peak of over 20 percent. This overvaluation is likely to persist for the years to come.
EUR/PLN forecast for Q4 2024
Analysts expect the EUR/PLN exchange rate to remain relatively stable, with a slight upward trend towards 4.28–4.30. According to Eurostat, Poland is rebounding from an economic slowdown, recording the highest GDP growth in the EU for Q2 2024 at 1.5 percent, compared to the EU’s average of 0.3 percent. Projections suggest GDP growth will reach 2.6 percent in 2024 and accelerate to 4.1 percent in 2025. Wage growth is also expected to remain strong, which could bolster the Polish zloty. However, inflation is forecasted to rise again, nearing 4.5 percent in the coming months and remaining above the National Bank of Poland’s target into 2025, with an estimated average of 4.6 percent. This elevated inflation may hinder the zloty’s potential appreciation against the euro.
EUR/CZK forecast for Q4 2024
Analysts anticipate minimal fluctuations in the EUR/CZK exchange rate during Q4 2024, with values likely ranging between 25.1 and 26.4, influenced by both domestic conditions and trends in the eurozone. The GDP is projected to continue its modest growth, after the 0.3 percent increase in Q2 2024, supported by household consumption and external demand. Inflation is expected to stay near 2 percent. GDP growth for 2024 is forecast at 1.2 percent, rising to 2.8 percent in 2025. The Czech National Bank remains cautious about further interest rate cuts due to inflationary pressures from wage demands and public spending but stands ready to adjust policies to maintain price stability amidst global uncertainties.
EUR/HUF forecast for Q4 2024
iBanFirst analysts are confident that the EUR/HUF will remain within its recent range of 380 to 400 until the end of the year, and possibly beyond. The Hungarian authorities are comfortable with this range because it supports export competitiveness while preventing excessive devaluation, which could hurt purchasing power and inflation further. Moreover, given the global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, Hungarian authorities are likely to avoid drastic moves that could push the currency outside of this band.
EUR/RON forecast for Q4 2024
In the context of Romania’s presidential elections, analysts expect increased volatility for RON crosses but believe the long-term impact will be minimal. For the EUR/RON there is short-term upward potential, with a target of 5.00. This is largely driven by lower bond yields, driving investors to put tactical bets on the euro in hopes of short-term gains. This also explains the recent increase in EUR/USD. However, this trend is not expected to last, and analysts predict no sustained rise in the euro next year, including against the RON.
