Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainties, Poland’s commercial real estate market saw a notable rebound in investment activity in early 2025. Transactions totalled €686 million in the first quarter, representing a 64 percent year-on-year increase. Investors are increasingly targeting smaller, more flexible assets, reveals BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland in its latest report, Review: Investment Market in Poland, Q1 2025
A better start to the year
The transaction volume posted in Q1 2025 signals a market recovery, but it remains below the 2018–2019 peak levels. Poland continues to be an attractive destination for cross-border investors, including new entrants, as evidenced by increased bidding activity, according to BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Capital breakdown by source region
European capital dominated investment activity, accounting for 61% of the total transaction volume. Notably, 32 percent of that came from non-eurozone countries, with half of this amount originating from Poland. Investors from the Middle East contributed 17 percent, while US capital made up 13 percent.
“Geopolitical factors – including ongoing negotiations between Russia, the US and Ukraine – as well as global trade tensions present potential challenges for the investment market in 2025. This uncertainty is dampening expectations for yield compression. That said, a geopolitical breakthrough could provide a significant boost to market sentiment, spurring increased investment activity. The market’s trajectory is also expected to be shaped by monetary policy decisions in both Poland and the European Union. The April interest rate cut in the eurozone, with a prospect of further cuts, is a promise of renewed investor appetite for commercial real estate across Europe and Poland alike,” says Mateusz Skubiszewski, Head of Capital Markets, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Small-ticket transactions on the rise
The first quarter saw a notable uptick in small-ticket transactions, with deals under €20 million rising 47 percent year-on-year and those in the €40–100 million range soaring by a staggering 187 percent. This surge highlights growing investor demand for projects offering a more predictable risk profile and streamlined management. While no major portfolio sales were recorded, only three individual deals surpassed the €50 million mark. A downturn in core investment suggests that many investors have adopted a wait-and-see strategy. Alternatively, this trend may indicate a broader shift towards smaller, more manageable assets.
Yields remain stable
During the first quarter of 2025, yields for key asset classes remained unchanged, reflecting investor caution amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Prime office and industrial yields stood at 6.25 percent, with shopping centres and logistics facilities serving e-commerce trading at 6.50 percent and approximately 5.25 percent respectively.
“The absence of a significant yield decompression suggests investors are waiting for financing costs to fall further and for macroeconomic conditions to stabilise. Looking ahead, a gradual compression is likely in the coming quarters, supported by the prospect of monetary policy easing in the eurozone and lower debt costs,” comments Karolina Wojciechowska, Director, Capital Markets, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Industrial and logistics assets outperform
The industrial and logistics sector, which turned over €202 million in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 47 percent year-on-year increase, was the top performer. It accounted for four of the five largest transactions during the period under review.
Headline deals include:
- Panattoni Park Tricity South II (78,000 sqm) – €59 million, acquired by Clarion,
- P3 Grodzisk Park (69,000 sqm) – €53 million, acquired by Prologis,
- Panattoni Park Tricity East V (50,000 sqm) – €41 million, acquired by Fortress REIT, and
- Panattoni Park Gdańsk IV & East II (42,000 sqm) – €36 million, acquired by Hillwood.
Retail and offices make a comeback
Retail came second, with €189 million in investment transactions, up by an impressive 203 percent year-on-year. Offices recorded €164 million, marking a 53 percent increase compared with the first quarter of 2024. The largest deal of the first quarter of 2025 was Uniqa Real Estate’s acquisition of the 16,000 sqm Wronia 31 office building in Warsaw from LaSalle IM for €69 million.
