In 2025, the Polish commercial real estate investment market moved from a period of correction into a phase of stabilisation. Despite a year-on-year decline in total transaction volume of 12.9 percent, the sector’s fundamentals strengthened markedly. The key office and industrial sectors returned to a growth trajectory, while the concentration of activity in the final quarter of the year and improving financing conditions provide a solid foundation for the anticipated recovery in 2026.
The total value of completed transactions on the Polish investment market in 2025 reached €4.3 billion, representing a 12.9 percent year-on-year decrease. However, the market picture is more nuanced than the annual figures alone would suggest. As much as 45 percent of total volume was generated in the fourth quarter alone, signalling improving liquidity and strong investor determination to close transactions before year-end. Importantly, the decline in volume did not stem from a lack of interest in Poland, but rather from the postponement of several large transactions to early 2026. Compared with the previous year, there were fewer single, headline-grabbing high-value acquisitions, with market activity instead dominated by small and mid-sized transactions, particularly in the industrial-logistics and retail sectors.
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND OUTLOOK
The stabilisation of the real estate market has been underpinned by the strong performance of the Polish economy, which, with GDP growth of approximately 3.5 percent in 2025, remained one of the leading economies within the European Union. This positive backdrop was further reinforced by a sharp slowdown in inflation to 2.4 percent in December, as well as a series of interest rate cuts announced by both the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland, reducing the eurozone refinancing rate to 2.15 percent and Poland’s reference rate to 4.0 percent, respectively. Improving monetary conditions, together with the forecast economic acceleration in 2026, are creating a more predictable environment for long-term investment strategies.
“Poland is entering 2026 with a strong sense of confidence. Supportive fiscal and monetary policies, combined with accelerating investment activity, mean that GDP growth in Poland could reach as much as 4 percent in 2026, making our market one of the most attractive destinations for capital in the region,” says Wioleta Wojtczak, Head of Research, Savills Poland.
INVESTMENT MARKET – TRANSACTION VOLUME AND SECTOR STRUCTURE
Investment volumes in 2025 amounted to just under €4.3 billion across more than 145 transactions, representing a 12.9 percent year-on-year decline. This outcome reflects the smaller number of landmark retail transactions recorded in the previous year, as well as the postponement of several large deals to early 2026, pointing to a stronger start to the year ahead. Despite the overall decrease, the final quarter of 2025 proved exceptionally active, with almost €1.9 billion invested, accounting for 45 percent of the annual total.
“The concentration of activity in the final quarter demonstrates that investors are returning to the market, albeit cautiously and selectively. Crucially, both the office and industrial-logistics sectors recorded growth of 7.4 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively,” comments Mark Richardson, Head of Investment, Savills Poland.
During the year, seven transactions exceeded €100 million in value, with a further 18 deals in the €50–100 million range. One of the largest transactions was the acquisition by CPI Property Group of a 49 percent stake in its Polish office and retail portfolio from Sona Asset Management, which was originally transacted in 2024 and was also reflected in that year’s annual volume. Other important deals include the acquisition of two facilities from Eko-Okna and the sale of a part of the portfolio of Vendo Park retail parks.
The sectoral structure of investment highlights a clear shift in investor preferences over recent years. The industrial-logistics sector has strengthened its position, increasing its share from approximately 25 percent in 2016–2020 to 37 percent in 2021–2025. Over the same period, the office sector’s share declined from nearly 40 percent to 32 percent, while retail fell from 30 percent to just under 23 percent.
OFFICE SECTOR – GROWING ACTIVITY IN CITY CENTRES
In the office sector, more than 50 transactions were completed with a total value of almost €1.8 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 8.5 percent in transaction count and 7.4 percent in value. Two transactions involved office portfolios, with all assets in both portfolios located exclusively in Warsaw. Of the 49 single-asset acquisitions, 27 were in Warsaw, followed by six in Kraków and five in Wrocław.
“Investor activity in Warsaw, particularly in the city centre, is supported by favourable leasing fundamentals. The market is characterised by relatively low vacancy rates and a limited development pipeline, resulting in a supply gap and upward pressure on rents,” notes Daniel Czarnecki, Head of Landlord Representation, Savills Poland.
Office buildings changing ownership in Warsaw in 2025 were predominantly centrally located assets. As much as 88 percent of the value of investments across 17 transactions in the city was concentrated in the central zone, primarily in its western part. These included assets owned by CPI, Mennica Legacy Tower, Wola Center, Senator, Vibe B and Wronia 31.
Czech and Polish capitals were the most active in the office sector in 2025, accounting for approximately 38 percent and over 30 percent of transaction value, respectively, significantly ahead of UK investors, whose share slightly exceeded 9 percent.
Prime yields for the best office assets in central Warsaw are estimated at 6.00–6.25 percent. Prime offices outside the core city centre and in regional cities are trading at yields approximately 1.25–1.50 percentage points higher.
RETAIL SECTOR TRANSFORMATION
In the retail sector, more than 50 transactions were completed with a total value of €862 million, representing an almost 48% year-on-year decline. It should be noted, however, that in 2024 more than €1 billion was concentrated in just three transactions. Despite the sharp fall in volume, the number of transactions remained broadly stable compared with the previous year. The investment market in this sector continues to mirror the long-standing development trend, with small and mid-sized retail parks dominating activity.
Over the past twelve months, no single transaction exceeded €200 million. Among the largest deals were the sale of part of the Trei Real Estate portfolio acquired by Ares Management Corporation and Slate Asset Management, the sale of the Libero shopping centre in Katowice to Estonia-based Summus Capital, and the acquisition of a portfolio of small retail parks by Reticulum Group.
Polish investors ranked among the most active buyers in the retail sector, placing second by investment value with a 19 percent share and first by transaction count, accounting for 31 percent. Owing primarily to the acquisition of the Trei Real Estate portfolio by Ares and Slate, US capital emerged as the leading source of investment in domestic retail assets, representing 24 percent of total value. Czech investors generated a further 12.7 percent, while Estonian capital, represented by Summus Capital, accounted for 12 percent.
Prime yields in the retail sector vary depending on format, location, competitive environment and tenant mix. Due to the lack of large-scale transactions, prime shopping centre yields in Poland are estimated at 6.25–6.50 percent. Retail parks are trading at yields of 7.00–8.00 percent, while smaller convenience centres and retail parks are seeing yields of approximately 6.75–7.50 percent.
INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS – GROWTH LEADER
The industrial and logistics sector remained one of the strongest performers, with 34 transactions completed, translating into approximately €1.5 billion of invested capital. This was the second sector after offices to record year-on-year growth in investment volume, increasing by nearly 12 percent, while the number of transactions rose by four.
The average transaction size amounted to just over €43 million, although deal values varied significantly, ranging from €2 million to more than €253 million. Twelve transactions exceeded €50 million; four assets were acquired for up to €10 million, and a further eight deals fell within the €10–20 million range.
The largest transaction was the sale of two manufacturing facilities owned by Eko-Okna, acquired by US-based Realty Income. The second-largest deal involved the sale of two industrial properties located in Bieruń and Tychy in Upper Silesia, purchased by Hillwood for approximately €100 million. The third-largest transaction was the acquisition of three Panattoni warehouses by Rysy Properties Limited for around €84 million.
As in previous years, US investors topped the ranking of capital providers in the industrial and logistics sector, accounting for more than 41 percent of invested capital in 2025, significantly outpacing Czech investors, who ranked second with a 23 percent share. For the first time, the Polish capital also featured among the most active investor groups in the sector, accounting for 8 percent of the total value, driven by the activity of DL Invest and several smaller private investors.
Prime yields in the sector remained stable following the yield decompression observed in 2023, standing at approximately 6.25% at year-end, regardless of whether assets were single- or multi-tenant.
LIVING SECTOR
Investment activity in the living sector in Poland, encompassing PRS and PBSA schemes, remains limited. The relatively small size of existing stock means that transactions are predominantly executed in a forward-funding or forward-purchase structure. In 2025, total investment volume exceeded €130 million across five transactions, including both forward-funded and forward-purchase deals. Two of these involved standing assets acquired by Belgian investor Xior Student Housing in Warsaw and Wrocław.
One of the most widely discussed transactions among market participants was the preliminary agreement reached in mid-2025 between TAG Immobilien and Resi4Rent for the sale of more than 5,300 residential units. Completion of the transaction is subject to approval by the Polish competition authority (UOKiK) and is expected in mid-2026.
Prime yields for the best PRS schemes remained stable in 2025 and are estimated at 5.50–6.00 percent, depending on whether assets are located on residential or commercial land. Prime PBSA yields are estimated at approximately 6.00 percent.
INVESTMENT CAPITAL ORIGINS
Czech investors accounted for more than a quarter of total capital invested in Poland, largely due to CPI Property Group’s acquisition of a 49 percent stake in its Polish office and retail portfolio from Sona Asset Management. The Czech capital deployed across 14 transactions exceeded €1.1 billion in 2025.
Three of the largest transactions involved US capital, which participated in 16 acquisitions with a combined value of nearly €867 million. Polish investors also ranked on the podium, accounting for close to 20 percent of total investment value. In terms of transaction count, Polish investors – private, institutional and public-sector alike – were involved in as many as 35 percent of all acquisitions.
Investors from the Middle East accounted for a further 6.8 percent, followed by the UK with just under 5 percent and Germany with approximately 3.3 percent. Investment activity from all other countries remained limited, not exceeding 3 percent.
OUTLOOK FOR 2026
“Following a period of market adjustment, 2025 marked a year of stabilisation and a return of activity, while 2026 is expected to bring a broader recovery in transaction volumes,” forecasts Mark Richardson. “The first half of the year is set to be particularly active, with several transactions already under negotiation or announced at the preliminary agreement stage.”
These include several large and market-significant transactions, such as the sale of Resi4Rent’s residential portfolio, the acquisition of eight retail assets from Auchan by Adventum Penta Fund SCA SICAV-RAIF, as well as further disposals of retail parks from the Trei Real Estate portfolio. In the retail sector, transactional activity is expected not only in the retail park format but also through the completion of sales of several large shopping centres. The office investment market is also expected to see a return of larger transactions in 2026, including those involving prime, newly developed assets.
“Although overall market liquidity is expected to improve, investors will remain selective. Prime assets in core locations are likely to outperform, while properties in less attractive locations or requiring capital expenditure may trade at a discount, albeit supported by credible repositioning strategies,” adds Wioleta Wojtczak.
Capital from Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic states is expected to remain among the most active investor groups, while a gradual return of Western European capital to the Polish market is anticipated as liquidity improves in investors’ domestic markets. Recent years’ data clearly demonstrate sustained interest from domestic investors in real estate. Looking ahead, the Polish capital is expected to remain a significant and stable component of overall market activity. Alongside traditional real estate funds, increased activity is also anticipated from family offices, which are increasingly targeting real estate assets in search of stable income, secure capital allocation and value-add opportunities across sectors.
