Over the past two years, Poland has made significant progress in laying the groundwork for investing in nuclear energy, according to a recent report produced by Baker McKenzie and Polityka Insight. In the report, experts commended the necessary readiness in the regulatory, social and political areas. However, the report notes that technological, investment and systemic preparations need to be sped up, especially when it comes to acquiring qualified personnel.
The report presents the Nuclear Readiness Index, which measures six key criteria. Experts from Baker McKenzie and Polityka Insight found that Poland is currently 58 percent ready to start the construction of its first large-scale nuclear power plant, EJ1. The highest rating was given to the political aspect (nine out of 10 points in the index), while the regulatory and social areas each received eight points. The lowest score (three points) was given to the technological area, and investment and systemic issues, which include finances, personnel, ancillary investments and the preparation of public administration, only received four points each.
Agnieszka Skorupińska, the partner leading the sustainability and energy transition team at Baker McKenzie in Warsaw commented: Polish regulations reduce the overall level of risk associated with the construction and operation of nuclear power plants, which is significant from the perspective of planning and obtaining financing for these projects.
However, there are still issues that may require legislative solutions, such as the functioning of insurance pools, strengthening local content requirements at the ordering stage, or determining the method of calculating local content. The latter issues are particularly important because the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant represent an opportunity for the development of the Polish economy and technology transfer.
The regulations defining the procedure for the construction and operation of nuclear power plants have been implemented at both legal and regulatory levels. They include nuclear project facilitation and alignment with safety and radiological protection standards. Polish regulations are consistent with international and European regulations. They are characterized by technological neutrality, which means they allow for the implementation of investment undertakings, regardless of the planned reactor power and technology.
The swift adoption and implementation of appropriate legal regulations were made possible by the consensus among decision-makers and politicians representing the largest political groupings. Successive governments have voiced support for the construction of a nuclear power plant, and plans in this regard form an important part of the country’s development strategies. Moreover, Polish nuclear energy investment is not questioned on the international stage and it is also supported by local authorities, for whom it constitutes a part of regional development and transformation plans.
Experts point out that the social factor does not constitute an obstacle to beginning the construction of a nuclear power plant in Poland. A high level of support for the project is partly the result of events in recent years, particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recurring discussions about the need for national energy independence. However, it is necessary to monitor changes in social moods, including the scale of the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) phenomenon. Public support for the construction of a power plant therefore decreases in its immediate vicinity, when compared to the level of support across the country at large.
Weronika Achramowicz, managing partner and co-head of the transactional practice at Baker McKenzie in Warsaw emphasized that the change in perceptions of nuclear energy is also visible in the transactional context. Previously, institutional investors did not consider this sector attractive, fearing high dependence on the regulator, long investment horizons, limited exit opportunities, and the risk of reclassifying nuclear energy as a sustainable energy source. Currently, we are observing growing interest in transactions in this area, if not directly in power plants, then in companies that are part of the broader value chain related to nuclear energy.
In the context of investment readiness, experts estimate that the signing of a contract for the comprehensive construction of reactors on an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) basis may be delayed and will occur only in 2028 or 2029, which is three years later than the originally planned date.
Agnieszka Skorupińska added: The signing of the EPC contract for the comprehensive execution of the investment and the commencement of the preliminary design and complete design stages, during which the project will be further detailed, may only take place after the current preliminary design work is completed. The contract itself will be subject to lengthy negotiations, given the need to properly address the interests of both parties and minimize risks related to the investment’s timely completion.
A longer time frame should also be assumed for obtaining the European Commission’s approval for granting state aid in connection with the investment. Although the European Commission is obliged to respond within 18 months of notification, the process usually takes longer for such complex projects.
Arkadiusz Ratajczak, senior associate in the sustainability and energy transition team at Baker McKenzie in Warsaw says: None of the nuclear projects currently being implemented in Poland have fully secured financing at this time. However, the investment in EJ1 is the most advanced, and obtaining the missing funds should not be a significant obstacle to its implementation. The notification application submitted to the European Commission provides for operational support in the form of a two-way contract for difference, which is in line with existing EU practices and regulations regarding state aid for nuclear projects.
Tania Arora, partner within Baker McKenzie’s Energy, Mining & Infrastructure Group based in London further added: Global recognition of nuclear energy’s role in achieving net zero is growing, yet access to financing, regulatory complexity and long project timelines remain as barriers. While major financial institutions now back nuclear expansion (including as part of the goal of tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050), success requires well-structured government commitments, legal frameworks and an effective ‘route to market’ for new projects. The Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE, on which we acted as a legal adviser for KEPCO, serves as a strong example — through proactive risk management, regulatory alignment and international collaboration, it became the first operational nuclear plant in the Arab nation Poland must ensure similar strategic planning to attract investment and deliver its first nuclear power plant on time.
The authors of the report rated the technological area the lowest. This is because the reactor chosen for the first power plant is still waiting for the licensing procedure to be completed. Additionally, there are no plans to contract other components for the power plant, which has a long production process.
Agnieszka Skorupińska said: The launch of a nuclear power plant must be preceded by the negotiation and conclusion of a contract for the supply of nuclear fuel. In the EU, this usually happens through the Euratom Supply Agency, but the negotiations themselves are conducted by the member states. Initially, the reactor technology supplier secures the supply of fuel assemblies, but later, deliveries should also be made by third parties. It is also necessary to prepare the infrastructure for the management of nuclear waste.
The shortage of qualified personnel remains the main systemic barrier in hindering the construction and future operation of nuclear power plants in Poland. However, Polska Elektrownia Jądrowa (PEJ), the company responsible for the investment in Choczewo municipality, has entered into agreements with universities that will see their graduates recruited to the power plant and public administration teams over the coming years. The success of the investment will also depend on the creation of extensive ancillary infrastructure, including a marine off-loading facility (MOLF) and power output infrastructure.
The EJ1 power plant is to have three reactors, which will be built using AP1000 technology supplied by America’s Westinghouse Corporation to provide a total capacity of 3.75 gigawatts. In the notification application to the European Commission, the government estimated that the related investment outlays would amount to PLN 192 billion, of which approximately PLN 60 billion is to take the form of the direct capitalization of PEJ using State Treasury funds.
