According to AXI IMMO’s latest report, “Industrial & Logistics Market in Poland, Q1 2026”, the industrial and logistics sector began the year with strong momentum on both the leasing and investment sides. Between January and March 2026, gross take-up reached 1.58 million sqm (+47% year-on-year), while net take-up increased to 850,000 sqm (+78% year-on-year), marking the best result since 2022. At the same time, the trend of limited new supply continued – developers delivered 653,000 sqm (-4% year-on-year) of modern warehouse space, and the vacancy rate decreased to 7.3% (-1.2 percentage points year-on-year). The investment market also recorded the highest share of the industrial and logistics sector in total transaction volume, reaching 44%.
Tenants return to new projects
Analysts at AXI IMMO, Poland’s largest advisory firm in the commercial real estate market, highlight that the first quarter of 2026 brought a clear rebound in occupier activity in the Polish industrial and logistics market. A total of 1.58 million sqm of industrial and logistics space was leased, representing a 47% year-on-year increase and the best Q1 result since 2021. Particularly notable was the rise in net take-up – including new leases and expansions – which exceeded 850,000 sqm (+78% year-on-year). New leases and expansions accounted for 54% of total take-up, while renegotiations made up 35%, and sale & leaseback transactions represented 11%.
The highest leasing activity was recorded in the Mazowieckie (316,000 sqm), Wielkopolskie (309,000 sqm), Dolnośląskie (255,000 sqm) and Łódzkie (228,000 sqm) regions. E-commerce, distribution and logistics companies remained the dominant tenant groups, with a noticeable return of logistics operators to the market. The largest transactions included a new lease (67,600 sqm) by a manufacturing company at Marq Wrocław V Logistics Centre in Lower Silesia, a lease renewal by a retail company in Logistic City Piotrków Trybunalski (Łódzkie) for 68,300 sqm, and a renewal combined with expansion by a logistics operator for 48,000 sqm at Panattoni Park Warsaw South Janki (III) in Mazowieckie.
Renata Osiecka, Owner, Managing Partner, AXI IMMO, commented: “The first quarter of 2026 brought an improvement in sentiment, particularly in the area of new leases and expansions. Companies are increasingly returning to development decisions that were postponed in previous quarters, focusing primarily on optimising distribution networks and improving operational efficiency. We are also seeing increased activity among logistics operators, whose share in the leasing structure is starting to grow. The market remains selective, however, with tenants paying greater attention to technical quality, infrastructure availability and the ability to scale operations flexibly”.
Controlled supply and further decline in vacancy rates
At the end of March 2026, total modern warehouse stock in Poland reached 37.4 million sqm (+6% year-on-year). In the first three months of the year, developers delivered 653,000 sqm, the best result in four quarters, although still 4% lower than a year earlier. The highest volumes of new supply were delivered in the Mazowieckie, Pomorskie and Śląskie regions.
A total of 1.46 million sqm of industrial and logistics space remains under construction (+6% year-on-year), although developers continue to take a cautious approach to speculative projects. Their share of the total pipeline has decreased to 37%, continuing a trend observed over recent quarters.
A positive signal for the market is the continued decline in vacancy rates. At the end of March 2026, the vacancy rate stood at 7.3%, down by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The greatest declines were observed in Dolnośląskie and Łódzkie regions.
Monika Rykowska, Head of Research, AXI IMMO, explained: “The Polish industrial & logistics market entered 2026 with a clearly improved balance between take-up and new supply. We are seeing a gradual recovery in occupier activity alongside a continued cautious approach from developers, particularly regarding speculative projects. This is leading to further declines in vacancy levels and increasing market stability. Differences between regions are also becoming more pronounced, both in terms of take-up structure and the availability of modern space”.
Warehouses lead the investment market
The investment market also recorded a very strong start to the year. Transaction volume in the industrial and logistics sector reached €445 million (+120% year-on-year), representing the highest result among all commercial real estate sectors. The sector’s share of total investment volume stood at 44%. Sale & leaseback transactions are also gaining in importance.
Among the largest deals were the acquisition of a logistics portfolio from Raben Group by W. P. Carey for approximately €169 million, and the sale of the BOOSTER Zabrze project by LemonTree to the Korean fund Vestas Investment Management.
Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets, AXI IMMO, commented: “The first quarter of 2026 confirmed that the industrial and logistics sector remains one of the most liquid and sought-after segments of the Polish investment market. Investment capital is currently focused on two poles: on the one hand, new assets offering long-term, preferably 20-year stable income and top-quality tenants, where investors are willing to accept lower yields; on the other hand, older assets requiring active management. We are also observing growing acceptance of projects located outside the main logistics hubs. Sale & leaseback transactions are playing an increasingly important role, addressing companies’ needs to release capital while maintaining operational control over their properties.”
Outlook: selective growth and continued market stabilisation
According to AXI IMMO experts, the coming quarters of 2026 are expected to maintain stable occupier activity, although development decisions will remain dependent on the macroeconomic environment and the performance of individual sectors. On the supply side, the market will continue to grow in a controlled manner, with new developments largely dependent on pre-leasing levels.
Renata Osiecka added: “The start of 2026 confirms that the Polish industrial and logistics market is entering a phase of greater balance and maturity. On the one hand, we are seeing a clear return of occupier activity, particularly in new leases and expansions; on the other, continued discipline on the supply side and a more selective approach by developers to new investments. This structure supports further stabilisation of vacancy levels and maintains relatively solid fundamentals for the sector in the coming quarters. Warehouses remain one of the most resilient segments of the commercial real estate market, particularly from an investment perspective, supported by sustained activity of both international and regional capital and a gradual narrowing of pricing expectations between buyers and sellers.”
