While occupier activity has rebounded significantly, developers remain cautious about launching new projects. The development pipeline is at its lowest level in nearly seven years. While there is no immediate sign of an overall supply shortage, a growing squeeze is likely in certain segments: modern, large warehouse space in suitable locations that could accommodate automation and the expansion of operations, says Jakub Kurek, Head of Industrial and Warehouse, Newmark Polska.
Take-up exceeded 3.5 million sqm in the first half of the year, up more than 21 per cent year-on-year. At the same time, the volume of warehouse space under construction fell by more than 11 per cent, with the vacancy rate dropping below 7 per cent for the first time since 2023. “Warehouse development is clearly slowing. At the end of the second quarter, just 1.3 million sqm of space was under construction, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2019. This points to a smaller pipeline of new warehouse space coming onto the market in the quarters ahead,” says Jakub Kurek.
New projects launch only when a tenant is secured
Development activity is increasingly concentrated in Poland’s six key regional markets: Warsaw, Upper Silesia, Lower Silesia, Central Poland, Poznań and Tricity, which together account for nearly 85 per cent of all warehouse space under construction. “Developers have not stopped building altogether, but they have largely shelved speculative projects. The market is now so large and mature that investors assess risks more carefully, particularly given high construction and financing costs. As a result, new projects are launched only once a pre-lease agreement has been signed with an anchor tenant,” says Jakub Kurek of Newmark Polska. That said, speculative developments may still emerge in some major markets in 2027, although this trend is unlikely to extend across the country.
High-spec warehouse space is increasingly scarce
At the end of the first half of the year, more than 2.5 million sqm of warehouse space was available across Poland, equivalent to a vacancy rate of 6.6 per cent, the lowest since the second quarter of 2023. However, the overall volume of vacant space does not tell the full story of the challenges facing tenants.
“There is currently no risk of a nationwide warehouse shortage. Tenants looking for standard facilities can still find suitable space. The greater challenge is finding premises in the right location with the required technical specifications, particularly large units of 15,000–20,000 sqm or more in prime locations,” says the expert from Newmark Polska. Warehouse availability also varies by region. Among Poland’s largest warehouse markets, Poznań and Tricity have the least vacant space, while Łódź, Upper Silesia and Wrocław have considerably more available.
That said, tenants in regions with higher vacancy rates are not necessarily better off. A comparison of Mazovia and Pomerania illustrates how vacancy rates can fail to reflect the actual choice of available space in individual markets. In the first half of 2026, Mazovia’s vacancy rate stood at 7.6 per cent, with 19 large units of more than 10,000 sqm available, including six exceeding 20,000 sqm. In Pomerania, the vacancy rate was lower, at 6.5 per cent, just over one per cent below Mazovia’s. Yet the choice of large units was considerably more limited: only three units of more than 10,000 sqm were available, and none exceeded 20,000 sqm.
Warehouses must be future-ready
Product quality is becoming an increasingly important competitive factor. Proximity to major transport routes remains essential, but location alone is no longer enough. For some companies, access to sufficient power, the ability to implement automation and adapt space to specific processes are equally important.
“In practice, this means the market will become increasingly polarised. Some tenants will seek modern facilities capable of accommodating increasingly sophisticated operations. Demand for high-quality warehouses in prime locations is likely to grow, with collaboration between tenants and developers at the design stage becoming increasingly important. At the same time, many occupiers will continue to prioritise functional space at a competitive price. Older warehouses may remain an attractive option for this group, provided they meet basic operational requirements,” says Jakub Kurek.
Chinese e-commerce skews the figures
Given developers’ cautious approach, take-up figures look strong at first glance. Tenants are returning to the market, and vacant space is being absorbed, giving warehouse landlords more reasons to be optimistic. However, take-up has been driven not only by underlying business needs but also by several large, one-off deals that have inflated the figures.
“A clear distinction needs to be made. Demand is genuinely growing, and this is not just a statistical effect. Companies still need space: they are expanding their logistics operations, reorganising distribution networks, and, in some cases, relocating to larger, more efficient facilities. At the same time, this year’s figures have been significantly inflated by several large transactions. The increase of more than 20 per cent, therefore, should not be interpreted as telling the whole story of occupier demand,” explains Kurek.
The ten largest leases signed by Chinese e-commerce platforms in the first half of the year totalled approximately 410,000 sqm. These included Shein’s lease extension for 67,000 sqm at Mountpark Wrocław and its new lease for 65,000 sqm at CTPark Iłowa. Temu, meanwhile, leased 52,000 sqm at EQT Park Wrocław South III. Chinese e-commerce platforms remained active in the warehouse leasing market also in the third quarter.
“While these leases are significant in scale, the figures should be treated with caution. Companies operating in this sector had to secure space quickly in response to changes in EU trade and customs regulations. As a result, many leased existing facilities, enabling them to expand their operational capacity rapidly. At the same time, such tenants are discussing their long-term expansion plans and the development of larger distribution centres, suggesting that some of this demand is likely to persist,” says Jakub Kurek. He emphasises that this year’s transaction volume should not be seen as the new norm. Much of it reflects a specific change in trading conditions, the impact of which will be clearly visible in the 2026 statistics. When assessing the market in the coming years, this temporary effect will need to be distinguished from longer-term demand.
The Newmark Polska expert also points to a shift in the take-up structure, partly driven by large transactions involving Chinese e-commerce platforms. “New leases accounted for more than half of total take-up in the first half of the year, while the share of lease renewals fell to 34.4 per cent, down from 54 per cent a year earlier. However, our experience working with clients shows that renegotiations remain common and will continue to play an important role in the market over the coming quarters,” says Kurek.
38 million sqm and an appetite for more
Poland’s industrial and logistics market comprises more than 38 million sqm of warehouse space, making it the largest in Central and Eastern Europe. The country accounts for more than half of the warehouse stock across the region’s six key markets (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria), underlining Poland’s strong position in this part of Europe. “The market will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than it did several years ago. New development will increasingly be driven by specific tenant requirements. Where demand for large, modern facilities is strong, and availability remains limited, developers will have a clear signal to launch new projects. This is a very natural growth model for mature markets such as Poland,” concludes Jakub Kurek.
