According to Avison Young’s latest report, after a challenging period marked by an investment slowdown in 2023, the 2024 results signal a return to stability and a hint of optimism. Poland’s total transaction volume in 2024 more than doubled compared to 2023, reflecting a significant resurgence in market activity.
“The return of investors to the commercial real estate market is driven by interest rate cuts initiated by the ECB and FED during the summer, translating into more affordable financing,” said Marcin Purgal, Senior Director of Investment at Savills.
Key Figures
- €5 billion: Total investment volume in 2024 (239% y-o-y increase).
- 130 transactions: Nearly half of the total volume came from the 10 largest deals.
- Q4 2024: Investment volumes exceeded the total for 2023.
Sector Overview
Office Sector
The office sector accounted for one-third of the total investment volume, highlighted by the sale of Warsaw UNIT, the largest single-asset office transaction in Europe in 2024. Other notable transactions included P180, Studio B, and Lakeside, with the latter facilitated by Avison Young experts.
A resurgence in regional office markets was observed, with 13 of the 45 transactions involving properties in regional cities, a sharp increase from just two deals in Kraków in 2023. Domestic capital, responsible for nearly 40% of office transactions, showed a growing preference for smaller formats.
Highlights:
- €1.6 billion: Office investment volume in 2024 (382% y-o-y increase).
- 32 of the 45 transactions occurred in Warsaw.
- Warsaw UNIT sale: Largest single-asset office deal in Europe.
Retail Sector
Retail investment represented 32% of the total volume, marking significant growth. Key transactions included NEPI Rockcastle’s acquisition of Magnolia Park in Wrocław and Silesia City Centre in Katowice, accounting for half of the total retail volume. Retail parks also maintained steady investor interest, with Avison Young brokering over 20% of these deals.
Highlights:
- €1.6 billion: Retail investment volume in 2024 (372% y-o-y increase).
- Two major regional shopping centres were sold.
- Retail parks accounted for half of all retail transactions.
Industrial Sector
The industrial and logistics sector saw €1.3 billion in investment, driven by portfolio deals. Notably, two Pan-European transactions highlighted the return of large multinational portfolios. The sector continued to benefit from nearshoring trends and ESG-compliant property demand, although older assets faced pricing challenges.
Highlights:
- €1.3 billion: Industrial investment volume in 2024 (127% y-o-y increase).
- 50% of the total volume came from portfolio transactions.
Private Rented Sector (PRS)
The PRS market continued its decade-long growth, delivering nearly 6,000 new units in 2024, primarily in regional cities. Warsaw led the market with nine transactions, including a portfolio deal brokered by Avison Young. Sweden-based investors were responsible for half of the total PRS investment volume.
Highlights:
- €344 million: PRS investment volume in 2024.
- 12 transactions, with Warsaw dominating the market.
Outlook for 2025
Poland’s strong economic fundamentals and market stability make it an attractive destination for investors. Avison Young anticipates continued interest rate reductions and relaxed bank lending policies, further improving liquidity across all asset classes. Smaller real estate formats with long WAULTs are expected to gain popularity, while REIT-type companies from Western Europe, CEE, and the Baltics show increased interest in the Polish market.