Over the next three years, retail sales in Poland are expected to grow at an annual rate of 3%. Supply is also increasing, particularly in the form of retail parks in smaller cities, which are attracting interest from both developers and investment funds. Experts from advisory firm JLL present the key findings from the “Retail Insights” report.
The Polish economy continues to stand out positively compared to the rest of Europe, providing a strong foundation for further growth in the retail sector. According to Oxford Economics forecasts, Poland’s GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 2.4% between 2026 and 2030, significantly faster than the eurozone average (just under 1.5%). Thanks to relatively low unemployment and rising wages (although wage growth has slowed compared to previous years), Polish consumers maintain a high propensity to spend.
Another advantage Poland holds over “old” EU countries is its relatively large working-age population. The age dependency ratio – the proportion of non-working individuals (children and seniors) to those employed – stands at 54.7%, compared to nearly 70% in major EU economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. All of this contributes to the rapid growth of retail in Poland – total sales are forecast to increase by an average of 2.9% annually over the next three years.
An interesting trend is that e-commerce remains significantly less widespread in Poland than in most EU countries.
“For several years, online transactions have consistently accounted for 9–10% of total retail sales, compared to an EU average of 14% and as much as 28% in the UK. Forecasts indicate that by 2030, e-commerce in the EU and the UK will grow at an annual rate of 5.2%, significantly faster than traditional retail (3.3% per year). However, Poles – like consumers in Spain and Italy – remain strongly attached to traditional shopping models, and the development of e-commerce in Poland is progressing noticeably more slowly,” comments Sandra Ludwig, Head of Retail Investment EMEA at JLL.
Retail Parks Still Leading the Way
In recent years, Poland’s retail market has seen strong growth in retail parks and convenience shopping centres, which accounted for 80% of new supply in 2025 (compared to just around 30% in 2017). Notably, no new shopping centres were completed in Poland last year, and only two large-scale projects of this type are currently planned.
Markets in large and mid-sized agglomerations are approaching saturation – in cities with over 100,000 inhabitants, there is approximately 1,100 sqm of retail space per 1,000 residents. In smaller cities with populations between 30,000 and 100,000, this figure averages around 700–800 sqm, while in towns of 10,000–30,000 residents, it drops to just 200 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants.
It is therefore no surprise that between 2023 and 2025, a new supply of retail parks and smaller centres in these markets reached as much as 325,000 sqm, the majority of which consisted of projects below 10,000 sqm.
At the other end of the spectrum are the largest agglomerations, where the growth of convenience retail formats is driven by suburbanisation and new residential developments on city outskirts. In comparison, these areas saw an additional 250,000 sqm of such retail space delivered between 2023 and 2025.
“We expect further growth, particularly in the retail park format, which will continue to dominate new supply over the next 2–3 years. Projects currently under construction exceed 500,000 sqm, and when including additional developments that may still commence, we anticipate another record level of new supply, close to the 700,000 sqm delivered in 2025. Development and investment plans – both domestic and international – remain ambitious for 2027 as well. However, given increasing market saturation and the pace of development, some projects may be cancelled or postponed. Market players are seeking new opportunities and attractive plots in locations where retail supply remains limited, even despite relatively lower purchasing power among local consumers,” comments Maciej Kotowski, Director, Research & Consultancy at JLL.
Growing Investor Activity
Last year marked the third-highest result in history in terms of the number of commercial real estate transactions. All key market segments—from office and logistics to retail – recorded increased transaction activity, continuing an upward trend observed since 2023.
In the retail sector, retail parks and retail warehousing assets proved to be a major magnet for capital, consistently attracting the strongest investor interest.
Importantly, last year was characterised by a highly diversified capital base. Investors from nearly all major global regions were active in the Polish market, with each region completing at least several transactions. This demonstrates sustained, long-term interest in Poland rather than opportunistic investment.
It is also worth noting the growing activity of new market entrants and private investors, who have historically been less involved in this asset class.
“Large-scale transactions are expected to return later this year, along with sale-and-leaseback deals, which have recently gained popularity in other sectors. New investors are already moving from the analysis phase to concrete actions. While foreign capital is still expected to dominate this year, the share of Polish investors is steadily increasing,” comments Agnieszka Kołat, Executive Director, Head of Retail Investment at JLL.
