The Warsaw office market continued to show clear signs of polarisation in the first quarter of 2026, with central and non-central locations increasingly developing according to different market dynamics. Disparities are visible in the quality and availability of office space, vacancy levels and developer activity, effectively creating two distinct market realities. These conclusions come from the latest “Office Market in Warsaw in Q1 2026” report published by the Research and Analysis Department of AXI IMMO.
Vacancy rates: clear disparity between central and non-central locations
One of the most visible signs of polarisation is the availability of office space. At the end of Q1 2026, the average vacancy rate in Warsaw stood at 9.5%; however, this figure masks significant differences between individual city zones.
Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager, Research and Analysis Department, AXI IMMO, comments: “In central zones, the vacancy rate stood at 6.5%, while in non-central locations it reached 12.2%, representing a gap of nearly 6 percentage points. The highest levels of vacant space were recorded in the Służewiec district (18.7%), the Żwirki i Wigury corridor (15.4%), and along the Al. Jerozolimskie corridor (12.0%)”.
In central locations, the market is facing a limited selection of offices, especially in the segment of large, contiguous floorplates. Low availability of space in the city centre translates into increased competition among tenants and upward pressure on rents in the most attractive projects.
Developer activity is concentrated in the city centre
Market polarisation is also reflected in the structure of new supply and investment activity undertaken by developers. At the end of Q1 2026, approximately 120,000 sqm of office space was under construction in Warsaw, of which over 110,000 sqm was located in central zones, while only around 4,000 sqm was in non-central areas. In practice, this indicates an almost complete concentration of new supply in the city centre. At the same time, 120,000 sqm under construction represents a 46% year-on-year decrease in development activity.
Emilia Trofimiuk explains: “There are no new developments in non-central zones, which confirms developers’ selective approach and the concentration of capital in locations with the highest take-up potential and prestige”.
This part of the city hosts the largest and most advanced office projects, such as AFI Tower (approx. 50,000 sqm), developed by AFI Europe as part of the Towarowa 22 complex in the Wola district, scheduled for completion in 2028, Skyliner II by Karimpol near Rondo Daszyńskiego, as well as Upper One by Strabag Real Estate on Al. Jana Pawła II.
Emilia Trofimiuk summarises: “These developments are characterised by their large scale, high standard, and concentration in the most prestigious locations, responding to demand from tenants seeking modern, representative office space. The situation outside the city centre is very different, where investment activity is clearly limited and focuses mainly on smaller projects, such as Puławska 533, as well as the repositioning of older office complexes in areas such as the Służewiec district or the Al. Jerozolimskie corridor. As a result, the structure of ongoing investments confirms the emergence of a ‘two-speed’ market model, in which the city centre attracts capital and new developments, while non-central zones remain areas of limited development activity and increasing price competition”.
Two markets in one city
A comparison of data on vacancy rates, rental levels, and the activity of developers and tenants leads to the conclusion that the Warsaw office market is increasingly operating as a two-speed market. In the city centre, the segment of modern, prestigious developments is strengthening, characterised by limited availability of space for lease and rising rental levels. Outside the centre, higher vacancy rates prevail, where competition is more strongly based on pricing and flexible lease terms.
The ongoing polarisation means that both tenants and building owners must adapt their strategies to the realities of specific zones. Differences between central and non-central locations are no longer merely a matter of address – they increasingly determine the operating model of entire segments of the Warsaw office market.
