The Polish warehouse market entered a new phase of the cycle in the first half of 2026. Gross take-up increased by 21% y/y, while net take-up rose by as much as 58% y/y, and the vacancy rate declined to 6.3%. Meanwhile, the volume of space under construction fell to its lowest level in more than nine years. According to AXI IMMO’s latest report, “Industrial and Logistics Market in Poland – H1 2026,” growing occupier activity combined with limited new supply is expected to drive a further decline in available space and gradual rental growth in selected markets, which could in turn encourage an increase in speculative development.
Poland’s total stock of modern industrial and logistics space increased to 38.01 million sqm at the end of June 2026. Developers delivered 1.23 million sqm of new space in the first half of the year. Development activity, however, remains cautious. A total of 1.30 million sq m was under construction, 11% less than a year earlier. Speculatively developed space accounted for just 38.6% of all projects under construction.
Occupiers signed lease agreements for a total of 3.51 million sq m of space. This represents the second-highest first-half leasing volume in the history of the Polish industrial and logistics market. The strongest first-half result to date was recorded in 2022. Particularly significant was the increase in net take-up, comprising new leases and expansions, whose share of total leasing volume rose to 60%.
Renata Osiecka, Owner and Managing Partner, AXI IMMO, comments: “For the first time in several quarters, we are seeing new leases regain the upper hand over renegotiations. Net take-up exceeded 2.1 million sqm, demonstrating that companies are not only securing their existing locations but are also expanding their operations and distribution networks, covering not only the domestic market but also the wider European market. This is a positive sign of changing occupier sentiment and a favourable outlook for the continued growth of Poland’s industrial and logistics sector.”
The logistics and e-commerce sectors remain among the key drivers of growth. Asian e-commerce platforms expanding their logistics operations across Europe were particularly active. In the first half of the year alone, they accounted for more than 400,000 sq m of warehouse space leased in Poland.
The highest occupier activity was recorded in the Silesian Voivodeship, where 621,000 sqm of space was leased, with new leases and expansions accounting for as much as 74% of the total. Strong results were also recorded in the Dolnoślaskie Voivodeship (581,000 sqm), Łódź Voivodeship (572,000 sqm), Mazowieckie Voivodeship (554,000 sqm) and Wielkopolskie Voivodeship (533,000 sqm).
Renata Osiecka adds: “Poland remains one of the most important logistics hubs in Central and Eastern Europe. We are seeing strong activity from companies serving international e-commerce, logistics operators and retailers. At the same time, the availability of large warehouse units, particularly those exceeding 15,000 sq m, is declining rapidly. In the coming months, occupiers seeking large volumes of space in selected locations may find it increasingly difficult to secure suitable options.”
Declining space availability is reflected in key market indicators. At the end of June 2026, the vacancy rate stood at 6.3%, down by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. The largest decline in availability was recorded in the Lubuskie Voivodeship, where the vacancy rate fell by 10 percentage points y/y. Among Poland’s largest industrial and logistics markets, the strongest decrease in vacant space was recorded in Dolnośląskie Voivodeship, where the vacancy rate declined by 5 percentage points y/y to 5.0%.
On the supply side, developers continue to favour projects secured by pre-let agreements. However, rising net take-up and falling vacancy rates may gradually encourage the launch of new developments with a higher proportion of speculative space.
At the same time, conditions in the investment market are improving. In the first half of 2026, transaction volume in the industrial and logistics sector reached €782 million, representing an increase of 13% y/y and accounting for 26% of total commercial real estate investment volume. Particularly notable was the return of large portfolio transactions, which represented almost half of the sector’s total investment volume.
Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets, Head of Valuation & Advisory, AXI IMMO, explains: “The return of portfolio transactions demonstrates that investors continue to view the industrial and logistics sector as one of the most resilient segments of the real estate market. Investor attention is focused primarily on modern assets with long-term lease agreements, BTS developments and cross-dock facilities. At the same time, limited new supply and the prospect of rental growth are strengthening the market’s investment fundamentals.”
According to AXI IMMO forecasts, the second half of 2026 should see continued high occupier activity, a further decline in vacancy rates and gradual rental growth in selected markets. Occupiers seeking large volumes of space will increasingly need to consider pre-let developments, which may provide additional support for development activity in the coming quarters. At the same time, the warehouse sector is expected to remain one of the most attractive segments of the commercial real estate market for institutional investors.
